Dollar-Off vs Percentage Popup Offers: $45K/Month Case Study
Dollar-off beats percentage-off. At least it did here.
We tested popup offers for an 8-figure adult wellness brand. The control was a standard 15% off popup. Clean design, decent conversion. Nothing special.
The winner? A $30 off offer with a $150 minimum spend, product imagery, and "Exclusive Community Only Deals" positioning.
Results: +$45,000/mo revenue, +43% email capture, +21% AOV.
Let's break down why.
The Problem With Percentage Discounts
Most Shopify brands launch with a 10-15% off popup. It's the default in Klaviyo. It's the default in Privy. It's what everyone does.
The issue is that "15% off" requires math.
Customers have to estimate their cart, calculate the percentage, then decide if it's worth it. That's cognitive load. And cognitive load kills conversion.
"$30 off" requires zero math. Instant understanding.
There's also no anchor. 15% off a $40 product feels like nothing. 15% off a $200 cart feels meaningful. But the customer decides the cart value, so you're leaving AOV to chance.
The Hypothesis
By switching from percentage to dollar-off, adding a spend threshold, and showing actual products, we can increase email capture, push AOV higher, and generate more revenue.
Pretty straightforward.
Test Setup
Component: Primary popup offer
Location: Sitewide
Platform: Intelligems
Test Type: A/B/n with 4 variations
Control: 15% Off
Standard percentage discount. Purple brand colors. Email field and CTA. Nothing fancy.
Variation 1: $30 Off with $150 Threshold
Fixed dollar amount. Minimum spend. Product hero image. "And Exclusive Community Only Deals" copy.
Variation 2: Free Gift with $150 Threshold
"Get a free Play Balm" offer. Same $150 minimum. Product-focused imagery of the gift.
Variation 3: $30 Off with Enhanced Design (Winner)
Dollar-off offer combined with:
- Product imagery showing hero products
- "Exclusive Community Only Deals" positioning
- Clear $150 threshold
- "Stay In Touch With Pleasure By Joining Our Community" headline
- Simplified layout with prominent CTA
Results
Winner: Variation 3
| Metric | Improvement |
|---|---|
| Monthly Revenue | +$45,000 |
| Email Capture Rate | +43% |
| Average Order Value | +21% |
The free gift (Variation 2) didn't beat dollar-off. Interesting, but not surprising. Cash value is more universally understood than product value, especially for first-time visitors who don't know what a "Play Balm" is worth.
Why It Worked
1. Concrete beats abstract
"$30 off" lands immediately. No calculation required.
With "15% off," the customer has to do work. And any friction you add between someone and their purchase decision is friction that kills conversion.
2. The threshold anchored cart value
$150 minimum didn't just gate the discount. It set an expectation.
Someone who might have bought a single $40 item now has a target. They add more to hit the threshold. That's where the 21% AOV lift came from.
3. Products create desire
The control popup was brand-forward but product-absent. Nice colors, no products.
The winner showed actual products. This shifted the popup from "give us your email" to "here's what you could have with $30 off."
Big difference.
4. Community framing added perceived value
"Exclusive Community Only Deals" reframes the transaction.
You're not just getting a discount. You're joining something. That subtle shift from transactional to relational matters more than most brands realize.
What This Means for Personalization
This test validated something we apply across all our personalization programs: different customer segments respond to different offer structures.
The next phase for this brand:
- New vs. returning visitors: Show $30 off to new visitors. Test different offers for returning customers who've already been captured.
- Traffic source personalization: Visitors from paid social might be more price-sensitive than organic/direct. Adjust accordingly.
- Cart value-based offers: Dynamic thresholds based on predicted order value.
We use Intelligems to run these multi-segment tests simultaneously. Each customer type sees the offer most likely to convert them.
That's the game.
FAQ
Does dollar-off always beat percentage-off?
Not always. But it tends to win when cart values are predictable and the dollar amount feels substantial relative to product prices.
For this brand with $30-80 products, "$30 off" felt meaningful. For luxury brands with $500+ AOV, "15% off" might actually sound bigger than "$75 off."
Test it.
What's the ideal minimum spend threshold?
Set it 20-30% above your current AOV. Creates achievable stretch behavior.
Customers feel like they can hit it with one more item. But you've successfully upsized the purchase.
For this brand, $150 was about 25% above baseline AOV. Sweet spot.
Should popup offers show products or stay brand-focused?
Product imagery typically wins for commerce popups.
People are on your site to shop. Showing them desirable products while asking for email creates immediate relevance. Reminds them why they came.
How long should you run a popup A/B test?
Until you hit statistical significance at 95% confidence. Minimum 1,000 visitors per variation.
For most Shopify brands with decent traffic, that's 2-3 weeks. Shorter tests risk false positives from daily/weekly fluctuations.
This test was run using Intelligems as part of a CONVERTIBLES personalization program. Want to see what offer psychology optimizations could do for your brand? Book a call to get 3 personalized recommendations for your store.