Dose
BFCM-Proof Test Concepts
Five tests built around the Black Friday offer. Three run after payment, so they carry no conversion risk during the sale.
are one-time
after payment today
see a post-purchase page
doubted Dose would work
What the data says
About 450 buyers a day still pay $27 more to buy one-time. That is 30.9% of checkout orders since Oct 19. During Black Friday the gap gets bigger than usual, because only subscribers get the gift set. Nothing reaches one-time buyers after they pay: no post-purchase offer runs today.
Asking for commitment before payment did not pay back for Dose. On Dose's commitment LP test (May 18 to Jun 11), CR fell 7%, not significant, and 40% of orders chose a commitment plan. Dose's verdict: "the improvement in retention does not outweigh the decline in CVR / increase in CAC." 3.8% of renewals still run on a 3, 6 or 15-box plan. After payment, the offer cannot change CR or CAC. Today the average new subscriber pays about $267 over 6 boxes, because many leave early. A 6-box commitment at $63.00 a box pays $378. That is a gain on anyone who would have left early. It is a loss of $67.50 on anyone who would have stayed: they pay $378 instead of $445.50. So we judge the test on revenue per subscriber over 6 boxes, not on how many say yes.
The PDPs ask for 3 to 6 months. The guarantee covers 30 days. The Liver, Cholesterol and Blood Pressure PDPs say results come "after 3-6 months of consistent, daily use". Every PDP and LP we captured on Oct 26 offers a 30-day money-back guarantee. From Sep 24 to Oct 25, 750 first-time buyers told the post-purchase survey that doubt it would work almost stopped them. The survey covers first orders from every page.
One platform fact limits the after-payment tests. Shopify shows no post-purchase page to buyers who pay with Apple Pay, PayPal or other wallets. From Oct 12 to Oct 26, at least 63.6% of one-time buyers on web checkout paid with Shop Pay or a typed-in card and can see it. Concept 5 asks at checkout instead, so it reaches every one-time buyer.
The largest opportunity is the switch to Subscribe. If 5% of one-time buyers switch, at up to $307 of lifetime revenue each, that is up to about $131k per 30 days after payment (Concept 1) and up to about $207k at checkout, which reaches every one-time buyer (Concept 5). The page test (Concept 3) is sized per 1,000 orders on the pages in the test, because Dose moves traffic between pages with ad spend.
What the latest tests told us
Three tests ended between Sep 11 and Oct 21.
| Test | Result | What it teaches |
|---|---|---|
| DD07 · Price per serving | Ended Oct 21. No winner: conversion +1.8%, revenue per visitor +0.3%, not significant. V1 cut 6 Pack picks by 11.6%. | Size-card wording moves the pack mix, not conversion. |
| Dose's test · $5 shipping on one-time | Ended Oct 20. V1 added a $5 one-time fee and a cart subscribe upsell together: subscription orders per visitor +6.4%, not significant. V3 showed the fee only at checkout: conversion -8.0%, just short of significant, and -11.6% on mobile, significant. | A surprise cost at checkout loses mobile orders. The test cannot tell us if a subscribe upsell works, because V1 changed the fee and the upsell together. |
| DD05 · Checkout reassurance | Ended Sep 11. Three kinds of proof under the order summary, all level with control on 1.6M visitors. | The three trust cards we tested at checkout did nothing. An offer inside the step is the next thing to try (Concept 5). |
The five concepts
Each one starts with what we saw in the data, then the concept. Mockups use the live site’s layout, copy, colors and product photos, with Dose’s fonts swapped for close free ones.
Switch to Subscribe after payment, with the Black Friday gifts
Subscribers already pay $63.00 against $90.00 one-time. From Nov 4 they also get Dose's Black Friday gifts. Right after a one-time buyer pays, we offer to switch the order to Subscribe & Save. The order is already paid, so the offer cannot cost conversion.
What we saw
| Signal | Source | What the data shows |
|---|---|---|
| A third of checkout orders are one-time | Shopify orders, since Oct 19 | 30.9% of checkout orders, about 450 a day. |
| Black Friday adds a little to the gap | Dose's Black Friday designs. Welcome Kit brief | Subscribe stays $63.00. The gift set ("$48 value", "on monthly subscription orders") adds an Everyday Tote ($23). The shot glass and a $20 ebook already go to first orders. One-time: $90.00, no gift. |
| Nothing reaches them after they pay | Shopify orders, Oct 5 to Oct 25. Intelligems test history | No upsell on any of 32,398 web and app orders. None of Dose's 55 Intelligems tests ran after payment. |
| The subscription itself worries some | Post-purchase survey, since Oct 19 | 8.8% of first-order answers name a dislike of subscriptions, lock-in or cancel worry. An offer after payment meets that worry with the order already safe. |
The concept
One card after payment, shown only on orders with a one-time item: switch this order to Subscribe & Save. The order drops from $90.00 to $63.00, the three Black Friday gifts ship with it, and the next box comes in 24 days at $76.50. A plain "No thanks" keeps the order as it is.
Why we think it can win. The ask comes when the order is already safe, and the reason to switch is concrete: $27 off this order, plus the Black Friday gifts. Neither Dose nor our test library has run this pattern yet, so the 5% switch rate is an assumption.
One limit to plan for. Shopify cannot turn a paid one-time order into a subscription. So the offer adds the subscription at $63.00 and refunds the $90.00 one-time charge. The buyer sees both on their statement, so the card says so before they tap. The fallback is a thank-you page button that turns the order into a subscription from the next box. It charges nothing now and also reaches Apple Pay and PayPal buyers, but it gives no discount on this order.
You'll get a confirmation email with your order number soon.
16oz / 3 Pack · One-time
What almost stopped you from ordering today?
Everyday Tote, Dose Glass, 90-Day Liver Guide
Variants
| Variant | What changes, on mobile and desktop |
|---|---|
| Control | No offer. Straight to the thank-you page. |
| V1 | After payment, one card: "Get $27 back on this order." "Switch to Subscribe & Save. The Black Friday gift set ships with it.", |
Revenue potential
About 8,560 one-time orders per 30 days can see this page. At least 63.6% of one-time buyers on web checkout pay with Shop Pay or a typed-in card. Buyers who pay with Apple Pay or PayPal skip it (Shopify payments, Oct 12 to Oct 26). If 5% switch: about 430 new subscribers × up to $307 lifetime revenue each = up to about $131k per 30 days. The 5% is an assumption. $307 is an upper bound, since one-time buyers may renew less.
How we read it
Subscription starts per one-time order, by arm. Then the first renewal of switchers against regular subscribers. Sales on the day fall by $27 per switch, so the test is judged on lifetime revenue.
Commitment after payment, for new subscribers
Dose's commitment subscribers stay longer, but Dose judged the CAC too high when it asked before payment. Right after a new subscriber pays, we offer to keep $63.00 on every box in return for a set number of boxes.
What we saw
| Signal | Source | What the data shows |
|---|---|---|
| Commitment cohorts rebill better | Slack, Jul 31. Dose's commitment summary | Dose: "We're seeing strong retention from the commitment cohorts." Month-2 rebill beat standard subscriptions; month 3 was in line, on limited data. |
| Asked before payment, it did not pay back | Dose's commitment LP test, May 18 to Jun 11 | CR -7%, not significant. 40% of orders chose a commitment plan. Dose: "The improvement in retention does not outweigh the decline in CVR / increase in CAC." |
| A quarter leave before box 2 | Shopify subscriptions, starts from Sep 24 | 74.6% of new subscribers on the 30% offer renew once. |
| The step-up is a reason to leave | Post-purchase survey, since Oct 19 | Price is 55.1% of first-order hesitations. "Recurring cost of 76 instead of 60. I will probably cancel and find an alternative." |
| Commitment plans already exist | Shopify subscriptions, since Oct 19 | 3.8% of renewals carry a commitment of 3, 6 or 15 boxes. New buyers can still get one on Dose's commitment LP. |
The concept
One card after a new subscriber pays: keep $63.00 on every box by committing to 6 boxes (V1) or 3 boxes (V2). Skip and pause still work. A plain "No thanks" keeps the plan as it is.
Why we think it can win. Dose's commitment cohorts rebill better at month 2. After payment, the offer cannot change CR or CAC, because the order is already placed. We have no prior test of this pattern after payment.
You'll get a confirmation email with your order number soon.
16oz / 3 Pack · Delivery every 24 days
What almost stopped you from ordering today?
Variants
| Variant | What changes, on mobile and desktop |
|---|---|
| Control | No offer. Straight to the thank-you page. |
| V1 | "You're in. Want to keep $63.00 on every box?" "Commit to 6 boxes: every box stays $63.00, not $76.50. You save $67.50." "Skip and pause still work." with Dose's plan terms in one line, a button "Lock in $63.00 for 6 boxes" and "No thanks". Mobile: full-width card, button and decline stacked. Desktop: the same card, centered. |
| V2 | The same card for 3 boxes: "Lock in $63.00 for 3 boxes. You save $27.00." Mobile and desktop: laid out as V1. |
Revenue potential
About 1,000 new subscribers a day since Oct 19, and 71.8% of them pay with Shop Pay or a typed-in card (Oct 12 to Oct 26). Over the first 6 boxes, an average new subscriber pays about $267 today. A 6-box commitment at $63.00 pays $378. A subscriber who would have stayed anyway pays $67.50 less. We do not put one dollar figure on this test, because the result depends on who takes it.
How we read it
Revenue per new subscriber over 6 boxes, by arm. The first read comes at box 2, about 24 days after each start. How many say yes is not the result, because subscribers who would stay anyway also say yes.
90-day money-back guarantee
The PDPs promise results after 3 to 6 months, and the guarantee ends after 30 days. We extend the guarantee to 90 days on the same terms, then test where to say it and whether to explain it.
What we saw
| Signal | Source | What the data shows |
|---|---|---|
| The PDPs ask for 3 to 6 months | Site, Oct 26 | Liver, Cholesterol and Blood Pressure PDPs: "Formulated to deliver results after 3-6 months of consistent, daily use". The buy box below says "30-Day Money-back Guarantee**". Every LP we captured shows the same 30-day guarantee. |
| Buyers doubt it will work | Post-purchase survey, Sep 24 to Oct 25 | 750 first-time buyers (10.1% of first-order answers). "AI platforms telling me not to purchase because there's not enough evidence that it works" |
| Few would claim | Okendo reviews, Aug 9 to Oct 7 | Low reviews that say it does not work: 6 to 7 per 30 days. |
| Today's terms | Dose refund policy, read Oct 5 | First order, within 30 days of receipt, no return needed, one refund per product per person. |
The concept
"30-Day Money-back Guarantee" becomes "90-Day Money-back Guarantee" in the subscribe checklist, with the footnote rewritten to the new terms. V2 also shows the line in the cart. V3 adds an ⓘ that opens a short “Why 90 days?” popup.
Why we think it can win. It closes a gap Dose's own PDPs open, and it changes a promise, not the layout. We have no prior test of a guarantee change. V3 also answers the doubt head-on: 750 first-time buyers in a month said they doubted Dose would work.
- Save 15% on recurring orders
- Give your liver the support it needs with 2-4 oz per day!*
- No commitments! Adjust or cancel anytime
- 90-Day Money-back Guarantee**
24-day supply | 1x daily
- Save 15% on recurring orders
- Give your liver the support it needs with 2-4 oz per day!*
- No commitments! Adjust or cancel anytime
- 90-Day Money-back Guarantee**i
We believe in Dose because the science backs it. In our 3-month clinical study, more than 80% of participants saw a positive impact on key liver enzyme levels.*
Real results take consistent, daily use, so we give you 90 days to see them.
If Dose isn’t right for you, we’ll refund your first order. No return needed.
*Based on a 3-month, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical study with healthy participants, when taken daily. First order only. Contact us within 90 days of receipt. One refund per product per person per address. Shipping is not refunded. Full terms.Variants
| Variant | What changes, on mobile and desktop |
|---|---|
| Control | "30-Day Money-back Guarantee**" in the subscribe checklist. |
| V1 | "90-Day Money-back Guarantee**" in the same row, footnote rewritten. Mobile and desktop: same row, same place. |
| V2 | V1, plus “✓ 90-Day Money-back Guarantee” in the cart, under the CHECK OUT button. Mobile and desktop: the same line in the cart drawer. |
| V3 | V2, plus an ⓘ next to the 90-day line in the buy box and in the cart. Tapping it opens a popup: “Why 90 days? We believe in Dose because the science backs it. In our 3-month clinical study, more than 80% of participants saw a positive impact on key liver enzyme levels.* Real results take consistent, daily use, so we give you 90 days to see them. If Dose isn’t right for you, we’ll refund your first order. No return needed.” On Cholesterol pages, the study sentence uses Dose’s Cholesterol study claim. Mobile: a bottom sheet. Desktop: a centered popup. |
Revenue potential
Per 1,000 orders on the pages in the test, a 3% lift = 30 orders × $94.77 AOV = about $2.8k, before refund cost (Intelligems, 30 days to Oct 19). The 3% is an assumption.
How we read it
Conversion rate and revenue per visitor by arm. V3 against V2 shows whether the explanation adds lift. Then refunds at 90 days by arm, from Dose's refund data.
Second product after the order
Liver and Cholesterol is the pair buyers already build themselves. When a one-time buyer says no to Concept 1, we offer one add-on: the other formula, Blood Pressure, or two more boxes. No price undercuts the Bundle.
What we saw
| Signal | Source | What the data shows |
|---|---|---|
| The pair buyers build | Shopify orders, Oct 5 to Oct 18 | Liver + Cholesterol is 393 of 964 multi-product checkout orders. The Bundle is 6.7% of checkout orders since Oct 19. |
| Customers add it themselves | Okendo reviews | "Used Dose for liver for about 6 months . All my liver enzymes are now NORMAL !!! I added Dose for cholesterol to my order!!" |
| Blood Pressure sells when offered | Shopify orders, Sep 28 | One email sold 437 orders in a day, 357 of them to customers at least 30 days old. |
The concept
Three offers tested against each other. V1 completes the pair at $70.00: a Liver buyer pays $90.00 + $70.00 = $160.00, the Bundle's one-time price. V2 offers Blood Pressure at $70.00. V3 offers two more boxes of the same formula at $76.50 each, then one more if declined.
Why we think it can win. Each offer matches something buyers already do. The winner also tells Dose which second product one-time buyers want.
Variants
| Variant | What changes, on mobile and desktop |
|---|---|
| Control | No second offer. |
| V1 · Complete the pair | Liver-only orders see Dose for Cholesterol; Cholesterol-only orders see Liver. "Complete your pair", 3 bottles, |
| V2 · Blood Pressure | The same card for Dose for Blood Pressure at $70.00, on orders without it, plus "Taking blood pressure medication? Ask your doctor first." Mobile and desktop: laid out as V1. |
| V3 · Stay on it | "Results take 3 to 6 months. One box lasts 24 days." Two more boxes of the same formula, |
Revenue potential
About 8,560 one-time orders per 30 days can see this page. At a 3% take rate: V1 or V2 is about $18.0k per 30 days, V3 about $39.3k. The 3% is an assumption. Guidance we follow puts a first post-purchase offer at a 20% to 30% take rate; that is not Dose data.
How we read it
Take rate and revenue per order, by arm. Not site conversion rate: the order is already paid.
Subscribe upsell at checkout, plus a Bundle upgrade for subscribers
Nothing is offered inside checkout today. V1 adds one offer for one-time carts: switch the item to Subscribe & Save. V2 adds a second offer for subscription carts: add the other formula by upgrading to the Bundle, at the Bundle’s own price.
What we saw
| Signal | Source | What the data shows |
|---|---|---|
| Nothing is offered in checkout today | Shopify orders, Oct 19 to Oct 25. Intelligems | No add-on line or upsell field on any of 10,205 checkout orders. No checkout test is live. |
| Many buyers skip the post-purchase page | Shopify payments, Oct 12 to Oct 26 | 31.4% of one-time buyers on web checkout paid with Apple Pay, PayPal, Truemed or another method that never shows it. Another 5.1% paid in a way we cannot classify. |
| Liver + Cholesterol is the pair buyers build | Shopify orders, Oct 5 to Oct 18 | 393 of 964 multi-product checkout orders. The Bundle is 6.7% of checkout orders since Oct 19. |
| A surprise at checkout cost orders | Dose's October shipping test (Intelligems) | A fee shown only at checkout cut conversion 8.0%, just short of significant, and 11.6% on mobile, a significant result. Both offers here are savings, not costs. |
| A cross-sell before payment lost elsewhere | Convertibles test library | A cross-sell in the cart drawer cut revenue per visitor 12.4% among buyers who opened the drawer. |
The concept
One block in the checkout order summary. On carts with a one-time item (V1 and V2): “Switch to Subscribe & Save: $90.00 $63.00 today. Then $76.50 every 24 days. Skip or cancel anytime.” On subscription carts with one Liver or Cholesterol 3 Pack (V2 only): “Add Dose for Cholesterol” (or Liver), “Upgrade to the Liver & Cholesterol Bundle: $49.00 more today, then $136.00 every 24 days for both.” One tap changes the line, and the total updates in place.
Why we think it can win. V1 is an offer inside the step, not another trust card, and it reaches Apple Pay and PayPal buyers who pay inside checkout. V2 is the riskier arm, because a cross-sell before payment lost on another brand. Ours differs in two ways: it shows only to buyers who already chose to subscribe, and it swaps to the Bundle at the Bundle’s own price, so no new discount is needed.
Limits to plan for. Buyers who tap an express Apple Pay, Google Pay or Meta Pay button skip the order summary, so they never see either offer. HSA/FSA buyers who pay with Truemed cannot subscribe today, so the switch block must warn them. The 30% first-order discount must still apply after the switch; Dose checks this on a test store first. To split-test the blocks, each one must read the test group and show or hide itself.
116oz / 3 Pack · One-time
116oz / 3 Pack · One-time
116oz / 3 Pack · Delivery every 24 days
Variants
| Variant | What changes, on mobile and desktop |
|---|---|
| Control | Today’s checkout. No offer. |
| V1 | The switch block, only on carts with a one-time item. Subscription carts see nothing new. Mobile: in the collapsed summary’s top line and in the expanded summary. Desktop: in the right-hand summary, under the items. |
| V2 | V1, plus the Bundle upgrade on subscription carts with one Liver or Cholesterol 3 Pack. Liver carts see Cholesterol; Cholesterol carts see Liver. Other subscription carts see nothing new. Mobile and desktop: in the same place as V1. |
Revenue potential
Subscribe upsell: about 13,500 one-time orders per 30 days go through checkout. If 5% switch: about 670 new subscribers × up to $307 lifetime revenue each = up to about $207k per 30 days. Express-button buyers never see it, so this is an upper bound.
Bundle upgrade: about 16,600 subscription first orders per 30 days hold one Liver or Cholesterol 3 Pack (55.1% of them, Oct 19 to Oct 25). If 3% upgrade: about 500 × up to $310 of extra lifetime revenue each ($49.00 now, then $59.50 more per box) = up to about $155k per 30 days. The 5% and 3% are assumptions.
How we read it
One-time carts: subscription starts per checkout, control against V1 and V2 together. Subscription carts: Bundle upgrades and revenue per checkout, V2 against control and V1. Checkout completion is the guardrail for both. Then compare with Concept 1 to decide where Dose asks for good.
How they fit together
- Concepts 1, 2 and 4 run after payment, so they cannot change conversion.
- Concepts 3 and 5 change pages before payment.
- Concepts 1 and 5 ask the same buyers, so they should not run at the same time.
